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One small voice in the proud tradition of FreeBlogging*
Sunday, September 05, 2004
posted by gbarto
at 3:07 PM:
So... it was Kerry's race to lose.
Now, it appears to be Bush's race to lose.
Or, maybe, this is a bit overdone.
Little Green Footballs mentions an interesting tidbit. According to SurveyUSA (here's the story), Americans are suddenly quite convinced that Bush is going to win. This survey can sometimes be more accurate than the "who will you vote for?" type, capturing the real direction of momentum in the race. I suspect this is because a) people who don't want to admit who they'd vote for don't have to and b) those supporting a loser are as likely to be truthful in wistful fashion as those supporting the probable winner in boastful fashion. Whatever the reason, some suggest the poll is worth watching, and here's what's happened:
- Those predicting a Bush victory went up about 20% to around 60%.
- Those predicting a Kerry victory went down around 20% - to around 40%.
There's one problem. For Bush to have experienced such a substantial bounce, he had to have started out pretty low. In fact, just about the same place Kerry is now. Do these numbers mark a trend? Or yo-yo-ing? One nice thing about this story is that instead of just handing out conclusions, it does present the data. That means we can play with it too. Some thoughts: - How meaningful is the pre-DNC to post-RNC period?
- Why wouldn't candidate movement during a convention count for more?
- What about post-DNC to post-RNC, comparing the periods where the parties had had their best shot at selling themselves?
Let's take these one by one: How meaningful is the pre-DNC to post-RNC period? As a slice of time, it's interesting. Because it amounts to the "convention season," it does have some political meaning. But, while it shows shifts in sentiment and a trend for the race, it doesn't show the ability of the candidates and parties to move numbers when the spotlight is on. November is note going to be like July, with people not really knowing Kerry. And it's not going to be like August, at the end of a week of pointing out Kerry's faults. In November, both candidates are going to be going hell for leather to push their messages. And the media will presumably deign to cover this - and with a disposition toward Kerry. Therefore, what we need to know is how the campaigns perform when the spotlight is on. Why wouldn't candidate movement during a convention count for more? It very well might. Not about the race, of course, but about the ability of the candidates to shift the race to their advantage. If, in November, Kerry or Bush is down 25%, a lot of this is going to be moot. But if it's a close contest, the critical datum is which party, under the lights, can make the hard sell. What about the post-convention surveys, taken when the parties had just had their best shot at selling themselves? That, too, is important. If at the end of its convention the party hasn't succeeded in at least making the public think about its candidate as a potential president, there's a problem. On the other hand, if a convention can leave people envisioning the candidate's presidency - in a positive way, of course - then the race will be fought along different lines than otherwise. A certain percentage of the population doesn't particularly like Bush, but does grudgingly respect them. These voters could go to Kerry if he can convince them that he's not only not Bush but plausible in his own right. So far, though, things aren't looking too hot for Kerry. Let's call this the "inevitability factor" (IF) - the percentage of the population that thinks a candidate as going to be President, whether they like him or not. The table below shows the increase (or decrease) in IF for each candidate after his convention, and where this IF was. Market: Kerry +/- (%) / Bush+/- (%)
NYC: +3 (57) / +19 (58)
LA: -8 (48) / +8 (59)
Philly: +7 (60) / +10 (59)
Boston: +10 (59) / +12 (56)
Detroit: +5 (52) / +15 (56)
Houston: 0 (42) / +12 (69)
Seattle: -2 (48) / +17 (55)
Phoenix: +2 (43) / -2 (60)
Denver: -1 (44) / +8 (63)
Pittsburgh: -3 (49) / +15 (64)
St. Louis: +2 (50) / +11 (57)
Baltimore: +10 (55) / +10 (60)
Indianapolis: +4 (44) / +4 (61)
San Diego: -11 (33) / +9 (61)
Charlotte: +6 (43) / +7 (65)
Raleigh: -2 (49) / +14 (59)
San Antonio: +2 (42) / +11 (67)
Grand Rapids: -3 (42) / +2 (56)
Buffalo: +3 (55) / +8 (56)
Oklahoma City: +4 (40) / +12 (76)
Providence: +2 (61) / +10 (51)
Louisville: +3 (40) / +12 (68)
Jacksonville: -6 (31) / +6 (68)
Las Vegas: -1 (50) / +9 (55)
Mobile: +3 (37) / +8 (69)
Knoxville +4 (40) / +9 (69)
Wichita: +3 (37) / +4 (70)
Des Moines: +2 (49) / +8 (58)
Tucson: +8 (53) / +10 (60)
Spokane: -3 (38) / +8 (67)
Maine: +4 (54) / +10 (57)
Pennsylvania: +5 (52) / +8 (59)
Observations:
During his convention, Kerry went up in 21 surveys, down in 10 and stayed even in one. Bush went up in 31 surveys and down in one.
After his convention, 50% or more thought Kerry would win in 12 surveys. 60% or more thought he would win in 2 surveys.
After his convention, 50% or more thought Bush would win in all 32 survey regions. 60% or more thought he would win in 16 surveys.
The region that was securest in its belief in Kerry after his convention was Providence (61%). The region with the strongest belief in Kerry remains Providence (45%).
The region with the strongest belief in Bush after the Kerry convention was Jacksonville (65% then, now 68%). The region with the strongest belief in Bush is now Oklahoma City (now 76%, up from 56%).
There are a million ways to weight and fuss with these numbers, of course. But it looks like the GOP is pretty solid here. Whether the country wants Bush to win is another question, of course, but they have at least convinced the country that Bush will win. By contrast, the Dem. Nat'l Convention did not convince the public that Kerry would be the next President, whether they wanted him or not.
Particularly interesting is what happened in the LA market: belief in Kerry collapsed during his convention; belief in Bush solidified during his. Having a guess as to which way LA is going to vote, it is worth noting that this is not a matter of misplaced faith in the home team. A lot of folks in the LA area are probably pretty unhappy about the prospect of a Bush win. But they see it coming, nonetheless. So, what happens to Hollywood dollars for Kerry? Will Hollywood back a loser, or is it part of the 38% that thinks Kerry will win this?
Our conclusion: Using our preferred data points - movement during the convention and ability to convince a majority that you're going to be the winner, the GOP actually comes out better than even the Survey USA write-up indicates. In the case of a tight race, this could bode well since it appears that with the spotlight on, the GOP does a better job of making the case that its candidate is the winner and winning previous non-believers over to that position. However, two caveats are in order: 1) Kerry was at a disadvantage in this in that some people may have held back on forming opinions prior to the GOP convention. As a result, he may have scored a little low due to a "wait and see" factor the GOP didn't face. 2) While the GOP did well in the spotlight, with Democratic and Republican messages going head to head, instead of taking turns, the media will do its best to put the focus where it serves Kerry. The irony: Ordinarily, a media bias in favor of Kerry would require hammering home his message in the final weeks. However, because Kerry does so poorly in the public eye, a truly clever media might have to instead focus on an unflattering aspect of Bush while ignoring their candidate of choice.
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