Wednesday, November 03, 2004Back of the envelope...Let's use round numbers. In Ohio, Bush has 2,794,000 votes. Kerry has 2,658,000 votes. Add 'em up, you get 5,452,000 votes cast. The thing is, there are supposed to be around 250,000 provisional and absentee ballots not yet counted. That would get you to 5,702,000 votes total. Bush or Kerry would presumably just need more than the other, but let's assume we're looking for 50% minimum. 50% of 5,702,000 is 2,851,000. To get there, Bush needs 57,000 votes or 23% of the remaining votes. Kerry needs 193,000 votes, or 77% of the remaining votes. Now, this is, as I say, highly provisional and without exact numbers. But still, it looks to me like if Bush breaks 25% on the remaining ballots, he'll sqeak through. Is the Kerry camp really convinced that even 2/3, never mind 3/4 of people who voted provisionally or absentee are in the Kerry camp. What does he know about these provisional voters that we don't? 
posted by gbarto at 5:36 AM |
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