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Thursday, April 21, 2005The Indigent Blogger suggests that with French PM Raffarin backing China's stance on Taiwan and wanting to lift the EU arms embargo against China, we may be headed for a new arms race, this time against Europe, with China as...The scenario is ugly of course, but it's somewhat amusing the way things are shaking out. Wasn't China supposed to be the next great power? Yet, to read the latest, it looks like it's just a proxy contest in a Euro-American bid for Pac-Rim hegemony. I wonder if China's new leadership realizes what a humiliation it is for the rising dragon to have been suddenly turned into a pawn in France's play for new and greater glory. The French play, of course, won't work. They aren't really going to get anywhere till a Corsican is in charge again, the continentals never having done well at the hard stuff. And I'm not sure the Corsicans are today what they once were. The biggest problem with the French maneuvers is that once again the land of nuance and sophistication has demonstrated a profound lack of nuance and sophistication. Most of its alleged allies - i.e. fellow EU nations - to the east are just emerging from a half-century of occupation by a nation with which France could do business. If you're in the Czech Republic, Hungary or Poland, you have a pretty good idea who to trust when it comes to judging who's an oppressive threat to freedom and stability and who's a legitimate potential ally. In the long run, we are headed for a sort of showdown. But France has several showdowns on its own horizons. It's going to have to deal with an eastern EU that isn't sympathetic to restrained tyrants, alleged allies in the EU that don't particularly trust it. And worst of all, it has an alleged leader whose primary motivation for staying in office is the prosecutors waiting for him once he leaves. In that environment, Chirac has to be able to make the tactical case for going head to head with the U.S., because he lacks the moral authority to make any other case. Chirac got a lot of French support when he was keeping France out of war. Once the moment wore off, people started remembering why they'd never much liked him to begin with. Raffarin is sharper and more likeable, but he's out of his depth here. In four years, all this will be forgotten after Sarkozy has taken over the center-right, Chirac has agreed to stay away from politics in return for avoiding prison and Raffarin has been carted out as too Chiraquiste. Oh, and a few years after, we'll be right back here as the next presidential election approaches and Sarkozy or his leftist vanquisher kicks up the anti-American stuff in an effort to suggest that for all her lost glory, France still dares to dream that it can rivaliser with the United States and, more important, the Anglo-American vision of freedom. 
posted by gbarto at 6:46 PM |
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