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Thursday, August 04, 2005Here's Stephen Green, writing about joint military exercises between Russia and China. Wonders he, what's up?I suspect that what's up is that China and Russia, whatever they think of each other, are realizing that the talk of America as an isolated superpower was bunk, and that the noose is tightening. Yeah, yeah, yeah, the French and Germans are leery of us, as are quite a few others here and there. But... Europe is now the domain of the US and UK. From World War II forward, anything that happened on the continent only got resolved after the US and UK decided what they wanted to happen and determined to make it happen. That goes for WWII, for the Cold War and for the mess in the Balkans: US-UK cooperation equals imminent solution. Their absence equals stalemate. In Asia, the United States' most venerable ally, of course, is Australia. Japan, however, has been working to make sure everyone knows that they and the US stand together. As Japan and the US get together, Taiwan's future becomes more secure. And the Chinese military-industrial complex's prospect for the ultimate glory becomes more remote. Indonesia, the Philippines and others may not be fond of us, but they know who got rid of Marcos, who cleaned up after the tsunami, etc. The US, Australia and Japan. And now we're cooperating with India. If you look around the world, you see two superpower models right now. The old superpowers are trying to prove their relevance and hang on to their clout. But the US and friends have intensified their drive to do something even zanier: invade countries, establish democracies and leave. Our model has its problems from time to time, including recalcitrant and ungrateful liberated nations. But in our model, once you've given a country democracy, you're almost done and free to move on to the next one. In the old model, you have to maintain your empire. In our new model, it's left to maintain itself. Which means... If you're in Russia, you're watching all your former satellites become democracies separate from and often hostil to the Rodina. If you're in China, you're watching the other old imperial powers become part of a coalition that isn't active in Asia yet but seems awfully fond of giving other countries democracy of the sort the US secured for them. This doesn't just cut off avenues for growth for China and Russia. It literally surrounds them with societies that have rejected their understanding of the world. Which leaves not one but two questions for them: 1) How long before we're totally surrounded? 2) What happens when we're the only ones left to liberate? The bad news for Russia and China is that thirty years ago we though they'd be dividing the world amongst themselves as the West languished. Instead, the West is securing itself by creating allies who even when (à la France and Germany) they won't fight for it, certainly won't fight against it. Gradually, the world is dividing not into Chinese and Russian satellites but into (quasi)democratic, (quasi)Western nations that will fight for shared ideals and (quasi)democratic, (quasi)Western nations that won't. While Russia and China are forced into an alliance as part of a languishing order on the way to extinction. Stephen wonders what it means that Russia and China are cooperating. As he hints here and there in his peace, it means that our alliances with the UK, Australia, Japan and now India are having the intended affect. 
posted by gbarto at 4:32 PM |
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