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Saturday, November 26, 2005A few thoughts on the Harbin disaster in China (more via Instapundit):I haven't read too much about the disaster, but I've read a few articles on the politics - officials will be fired, will this, will that... Will they get the same treatment as those who sat on their earlier health crises (eg SARS), saying, "What, me worry?" I realize the disaster is, well, a disaster. That's why they call it that. But it's one that China may finally handle correctly. How come? It was too noticeable to sweep under the rug. It drew immediate attention. Even if there are long term, terrible consequences, people know a lot more about where to steer clear and how to stay safe. This is a disaster. But it is one that is subject to disaster management - as opposed to mere PR damage control, which is where the Chinese have been on most public health issues. So why, now that we have a mess that can be dealt with are we rushing heads to the chopping block? Maybe because this involves mere industrial types and lower level planners who may have screwed up in a bad situation, whereas the other crises related to higher ranking party officials playing politics? It's also worth wondering if the Chinese government shouldn't have had better safeguards in place. I keep hearing about how the Chinese are going to overrun us all - economically, I mean. But the bottom line is, you can't have it both ways. The United States produces people like Bill Gates because our free enterprise system allows cranks and braggarts to try out their ideas and get rich or go belly-up. Eventually, this generates enough wealth that decent health standards and public safety protections are put in place by a society wealthy enough to pay for them and with a free enough, self-governing enough people that they can demand them. China, at the moment, is the ugly corporation's dreamland - it lets you exploit the people, the environment, etc, and make money - if you play nice with Beijing. But in the long run, China is going to have to open up enough that the government's fear isn't of unrest, but of being voted out, when things like this happen. Is going to have to open up enough that better safety and health precautions are in place. Is going to have to open up enough that business and government are no longer back-scratching partners but competitors for the populace's renmibi (Chinese dollars). Otherwise, no Bill Gates. China, right now, is stumbling along at the same place we were when the muckrakers cut loose on meat-packing plants, bribery, etc. Only there's no good democratic system to channel it. Which means they don't get here from there until something changes. Short version: this latest incident and the government's response shows China still isn't ready for prime time. In the long run... China's options are two. They can continue the cold war whose beginning at least traces to their finagling in the '96 elections - and be outlasted by our system, which is hard to beat with the way it unleashes the energy of free individuals. That's what happened to Russia. Or... the old Marxist enterprise that has already scuttled Marxism can prepare for a gentle self-scuttling that pushes China in our direction before it is actively forced to go there. Either way, the problems popping up in a China whose leadership wants to let the economic genie out of the bottle - but nothing else - will continue as they stumble and stagger, doing the same stupid things we've done, but without the mechanisms for self-correction that make sure you get it right sooner, rather than later, for faster real and meaningful growth that leaves the planners scratching their heads as the world whizzes by them. By the way, one hates to pile on, reading that there's just been an earthquake in central China. Still, the point does need to be made, especially for those forecasting a Chinese takeover of the world: Harbin and the like point to a system that can't find its footing, and won't, because it's not addressing its biggest internal contradiction - freedom in life, thought and money are all tied together, are all necessary to unleash a society's full potential, and in any combination are ultimately inimical to a government that thinks it can advance by controlling or managing them. 
posted by gbarto at 6:42 PM |
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