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Sunday, July 16, 2006So, how are things in the Middle East? Not as good as they could be. But not as bad, either.Israel is crushing any Hezbullah elements it can find and the world is watching. Yeah, some are bitching alot. And others a little bit. And others, like our own administration, are embarrassingly unclear on the whole thing: Israel must do what it must do, but not too much. But the world is watching. The reaction consists of conferences and statements, and even these are jumbled with the Arab League, the U.N. and the G8 all unable to speak with a unified voice. We've seen this before. Remember how the Palestinians slaughtered Israelis, and the world wrang its hands? Then Israel built a wall, and the world wrang its hands? And the Russians were savage with the Chechens, and the world wrang its hands? And the Chechens were savages at Beslan, and the world wrang its hands? Israel, I think, is on to something here. Something we've observed already vis-à-vis the U.S. in the Middle East and Central Asia: The question of import is not what people claim to think in the protests, demonstrations, diplomatic communiqués and all the rest. The question that matters - the only question that matters - is who will act. There is that delightful expression, "you and what army?" The Israelis - like the Americans, Brits and Australians - have a substantive answer to that rhetorical question. It's good the Israelis are giving their answer and loud and clear. For too long, it is the terrorists who have demonstrated a willingness to act. And while their action hasn't been very effectual in concrete terms, it has set all atwitter those who love to talk. To Israel's consternation, America's consternation, to the advocates of peace with liberty's consternation. Now Israel is answering action with action. And now that they're pushing forward, the handwringers are showing their true colors - they're white as a surrender flag. The Arab League, the peace at any price activists, and most especially the Iranians and Syrians. Years of rhetoric about pushing Israel into the sea, but when Hezbollah launches a few rockets toward that end they start issuing statements. They're no better than the French. The world belongs to those who act. The terrorists know this: they've taken front pages for years now. But today the front pages are not about what Israel can do to appease Hezbollah. They're about the damage on both sides from a war in progress. Unfortunately, this is a major advance in the public relations game. This guy thinks we're looking at a prisoner swap gone bad. Maybe so, and read his piece because there's a lot in both the main post and the comments. But regardless of how it started, the practical effect was to see 1) whether Hezbollah could draw Lebanon into a war with Israel on its side and 2) whether Israel would oblige. So far, Israel seems to be sticking to actions to punish Hezbollah and its supporters, while allowing the Lebanese people safety, however they may feel about the circumstances. And Lebanon seems to be trying to stay out of it. I think there is a critical moment here: We have the chance to set two important precedents that will help us greatly in the War on Terror. Not that we haven't talked about these before in the context of the Coalition of Freedom's actions, but we are reminded: 1) Nations that do not deal with their terrorists do not have taken but forfeit an element of their sovereignty. 2) Nations affected by the inability of other countries to exercise their obligations of sovereignty can and will meet the resultant challenges. Important lessons for every country that lacks the strength of conviction in dealing with its terrorists. We shall have to see how long it takes before the U.S. seizes Canadian mosques, but Israel is offering some useful and important principles that we should do our best to write into the conventional wisdom. And, per the linked post, a good way of approaching this in the Hezbollah-Lebanon case would be to let it be known through channels that Israel can help Lebanon establish its sovereignty with mutual efforts against Hezbollah, or it can acknowledge its failure to function as a sovereign nation when Israel does the dirty work entirely on its own terms. In the meantime - and God willing I won't be proved wrong tomorrow - it seems unlikely to me that Syria or Iran will step in to "rescue" Lebanon or punish Israel, the cost of backing up their anti-Israel rhetoric being too high so long as Israel can keep us believing this is still Israel vs. a terrorist group and not something that has escalated into all-out war between nation states. True, that is the case - war between nation states - (Hezbollah probably lacks the wherewithal to figure out those rockets on their own), but as long as we can pretend its not, we should be able to come out of this in good shape and, as I noted earlier, some useful principles about the obligations of sovereignty reconfirmed. 
posted by gbarto at 3:45 PM |
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