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TurkeyBlog on French Elections, Round 2
One small voice in the proud tradition of FreeBlogging *
TurkeyBlog on French Elections, 1st round
Second Round Results Map
Saturday, May 11, 2002
posted by gbarto at 7:49 PM:
Den Beste notes that President Chirac is playing games with the Israel issue. Like the Norwegians halting Israeli goods, this poses the greatest threat to those who think they're in a position of strength. The French people aren't blind, and those French most apt to notice first that synagogues were being burned and second that this was not merely bad or a fire hazard but downright horrifying are the ones who voted for Chirac to stifle Le Pen (an idiotic act since Le Pen, not withstanding the "details" comment, supported Israel's right to be Israel, if only to assert France's right to be France). These voices for tolerance will turn just as quickly against Chirac, if given the chance. The French president, like too much of the French political establishment, went to one of a small number of schools that produce politicians, had it reinforced for him that his beliefs didn't matter, only his adherence to managerial patterns, and has come away with the sense, therefore, that the masses could be perfectly governed if only they could be better controlled. Like the Communists who considered crop reports false when they failed to conform to the five-year plan, the French politicians see defects in the people, not their programs, when things go awry. The problem for such thinking is that the people occasionally manage to make their voices heard in spite of the technocratic efforts to stifle them. M. Jospin has already found this out. Will Chirac be next?* * *
posted by gbarto at 7:28 PM:
Baisse des impôts : la marge étroite du gouvernementLe dossier fiscal sera inscrit à l'ordre du jour du séminaire qui réunit ce matin les membres du nouveau gouvernement à Matignon. Soucieux de crédibiliser les promesses électorales du président-candidat, la nouvelle équipe au pouvoir doit préciser les modalités de la baisse de l'impôt sur le revenu.
Apparently they're going to push forward with an attempt to show Chirac wasn't kidding when he promised lower taxes.
* * *
posted by gbarto at 11:13 PM:
Le Monde's daily wrap-up:Le gouvernement décrypté
A l'issue de longues tractations, le premier ministre a achevé de composer, mardi, son gouvernement. Dominé par les chiraquiens, il compte quelques signes d'ouverture vers la société civile grâce à la nomination du philosophe Luc Ferry à l'éducation et de l'arrivée, à Bercy, de Francis Mer. La première journée d'activité du gouvernement a été marquée par un attentat qui a fait 11 victimes françaises au Pakistan. / The government decrypted At the conclusion of lengthy negotiations, the Prime Minister succeeded Tuesday in putting together his government. Dominated by Chiraquiens, it includes some signs of opening up to civil society thanks to the nomination of the philosopher, Luc Ferry, for Education and from the arrival, at Bercy, of Francis Mer. The first full day of work for the new government was marked by a bombing with 11 French victims in Pakistan. [note the express mention of French casualties without acknowledgment of the others; normally it is assumed that only the US could take such a nativist approach]
And here's the headline for subhead 1: Attentat à Karachi : 11 Français tués / Bombing at Karachi: 11 French dead
The article summary below this acknowledges that there were a total of 13 fatalities.
The other two big stories: Bombing Shatters Peace Process and A leftist majority in June? - the article says fear about the rise of the FN may cause more leftists to vote and discourage others from supporting Chirac's party as they try to balance off France's tilt to the right.
* * *
Tuesday, May 07, 2002
posted by gbarto at 9:19 PM:
Le Monde:Raffarin's team put in place
The Raffarin government, introduced Tuesday at the end of the afternoon, has more than its share of people close to the head of state. Composed of 27 members (15 ministers and 12 delegate ministers and secretaries of state), it includes among its members notably Sarkozy (security), de Villepin (foreign affairs), Alliot-Marie (defense), Perben (justice) and Fillon (social affairs). Raffarin, questioned at 8 on TF1, announced his intention to launch an audit of the accounts of the State "in order to get a better sense of them".
* * *
Monday, May 06, 2002
posted by gbarto at 9:28 PM:
Emmanuelle on Le Pen. She also notes that the NYT seemed to be winking at the idea the Alsatians on the French German border who voted Le Pen were closet Nazis.The NYT should know that the French are an open, tolerant people by and large, and that even the typical Le Pen voter (based on the three I've met) are not frothing at the mouth monsters. They had their reasons, with which I disagreed, but those reasons were rooted in preserving a culture they cherish, and sustaining the economy through what I perceive to be terribly faulty measures. Can one be a monster and vote Le Pen? Certainly. Or Chirac, or Jospin, or Mitterand. But those wacky French really aren't that wacky and the typical Le Pen voter is probably like the typical Buchanan voter - not a convert but someone who is extremely frustrated with the mainstream politicians' refusal to address their concerns. When politicians try to write viewpoints out of polite society, impolite society is only too happy to provide a voice. If Chirac is serious about meeting the people's concerns rather than trying to mold the people to the aims of the Elysée Palace and Matignon, Le Pen will disappear soon enough from the political landscape.
* * *
posted by gbarto at 9:06 PM:
NB, re the references to Democratic Liberals or Liberal Democrats - in France "liberal" still has the traditional meaning, in favor of that which is libre, free, especially free trade and free markets. U.S. conservatives carry the name because (at least in some cases) they want to conserve the liberal tradition from which those traditionally associated with liberalism are presumed to have strayed.* * *
posted by gbarto at 9:02 PM:
Libé:Chirac dimanche, Raffarin lundi, le gouvernement mardi
Le sénateur Démocratie libérale a été choisi par Jacques Chirac pour succéder à Lionel Jospin, qui avait remis peu avant sa démission au président réélu • La composition du gouvernement doit être annoncée mardi matin / Chirac Sunday, Raffarin Monday, the government Tuesday The Liberal Democratic senator was chosen by Chirac to succeed Lionel Jospin, who had recently given his notice of resignation to the reelected president. The composition of the new government will be announced Tuesday.
* * *
posted by gbarto at 8:54 PM:
Chirac: 25 080 116Le Pen: 5 484 577
Vote totals shown on Figaro (flash pop-up, sorry, no link)
Figaro headlines of note:
Jean-Pierre Raffarin named Prime Minister
Chirac triumphs, but the hard work remains
Le jour où la gauche a voté pour Jacques Chirac
* * *
posted by gbarto at 8:41 PM:
Le Monde:Chirac président,
Raffarin premier ministre
The incumbent president obtained a historic 82.15% of voters in the second round of the presidential election against Jean-Marie Le Pen (17.85%). The votes of the left and extreme left were overwhelmingly delivered to Jacques Chirac. After the departure of Lionel Jospin, Monday morning, the head of state named Jean-Pierre Raffarin, a Democratic Liberal senator from Vienne, as prime minister. The announcement of the next government should come Tuesday.
Sub-heads:
Chiraquiens call for an active majority for Chirac's party in the legislative elections in June.
The Socialist Party at the center of rebuilding France's weakened political institutions? Hollande, their new leader, says Chirac's win was not about him but about rejecting the extreme right. Therefore, he thinks, the PS needs a voice in what comes next. My own comment: the head of the PS wouldn't need to say this in an interview if the PS hadn't let half the left drift off elsewhere.
Le Pen may have lost, but his vote totals weren't bad; he hopes to play a role in the legislative elections to come.
* * *
posted by gbarto at 4:32 PM:
Fox News confirms that Raffarin is a free-marketer; strangely, the profiles in Figaro and Le Monde called him a relative unknown yet had little to tell readers about his ideology, instead focusing on contacts with prominent politicians. Of course it's true that the elite does tend to focus more on where you went to school than what you've done since, one reason why Chirac hasn't been written out of society by the left in spite of his own free-market ideology.* * *
posted by gbarto at 1:33 PM:
Daniel Johnson offers a very discouraging view of what's ahead for France. I'm inclined to agree with a lot of it - if Chirac and co. don't get their act together, because, unlike Johnson, I don't think it's even worth the time or energy to plot scenarios where the hard left shapes up. via A Dog's Life* * *
posted by gbarto at 1:17 PM:
In France, they use the vote.* * *
posted by gbarto at 1:02 PM:
Who is Raffarin, the new PM of France? Just a few thoughts. LeMonde refers to him as Chirac's joker - not in the sense of a buffoon but in the sense of a card Chirac can play whenever and wherever necessary. He looks like an interesting pick. Apparently his watchword is "proximity". Whether during his time in government or in the advertising biz, he has always put an emphasis on being close to the people that his efforts will affect. He took his show on the road in a manner of speaking while working in a couple ministries (governmental) and has written a book whose thesis is that a "new governance" should focus on getting close to the people to help them resolve their problems in a way that can win social consensus. Further, this is sort of what he's been doing - he has posts with the EU and has done his time in Paris, but seems to prefer to talk about time spent in the regional Senate, where he was, in fact, until today, serving. I'm not sure what this says about his place in terms of economic reform - which neither Le Monde nor Le Figaro really seem to mention in their portraits - but Chirac's declared intentions for his second term - that he wanted to create something of a missionary/emissary government (gouvernement de mission) to reach out to the people and take as its first task addressing their concerns - could have been written to clear the way for this guy becoming PM. Comes the question: What happens in June? If Chirac has chosen well, it could be that in a month the French will have an inkling at least of why they want a center-right government with real as opposed to traditional socialistic answers to their problems. On verra.* * *
posted by gbarto at 12:37 PM:
The Wall Street Journal makes some nice points about the French election, but asks a few questions seemingly in the hopes of optimistic answers that I don't see forthcoming. The first of these is whether Chirac can put together a center right coalition after the legislative elections. The Journal notes that by instinct Chirac is a) a politician and b) a free-marketer. That is, if he has a free hand, Chirac will move to the market solution. But if he doesn't, he'll cope: this is not a DeGaulle, prepared to renounce all his power rather than accept limitations on it. In other words, with the right Assembly, M. Chirac could convert France into an economic powerhouse that even Germany would want to emulate, but without it, he'll accept the prestige of being Président de la République française, even as the Republic withers away in socialistic decline. The election map I showed earlier seems to show a lot of right wing (ie pro-Le Pen) sentiment, but I didn't chose red for Le Pen's color by accident. The far-right and center-left in France agree on one thing only: that the government should run the economy for the people in opposing as dangerous and uncertain the capital markets and capitalism itself. In other words, the red areas can be assumed to lean toward the same solutions to economic problems as the Communists and the hard-left socialists, the only difference being to whom wealth is redistributed. Will Chirac be able to put together a center-right coalition in the free market camp? I have my doubts. We shall see.The Journal also hopes the shock of Le Pen's strong showing in the first round will wake up the middle in French politics to what's going on; having lived in the homes of middle-class French people, attended their dinner parties, et cetera, I suspect that the same thinking occurs with them that happens with welfare advocates here: they take the failure of government management less as proof that it won't work than as proof that there needs to be more and more precise application of government to the problems. In this vain, the Journal's suspicion that it may take a Tony Blair "free-market socialist" to bring France back seems on target.
Finally, there is the question of Chirac's seriousness about this. Will he pull out all the stops as the wily politician he is to make his final go at the presidency a glorious one, or will he start his retirement early? He'll be 76 when he's done, but he remains a vigorous guy. The Journal says his interim prime minister may show hints as to which way he's leaning. I'm not sure about this - he's been around the system long enough to know that he's mainly filling a slot while waiting to see how the power environment comes out, and that if his intention is as controversial as genuinely reforming French society's approach to the markets, a benign pick to mask this - lest he galvanize the socialists - would perhaps serve him best. Which makes Raffarin a question mark for me. I don't know much about him, hope to let you know some more in the near future. Then I'll have a better read (maybe) on the third question.
* * *
posted by gbarto at 9:38 AM:
New Prime Minister in France. With Jospin's resignation, Chirac has named a new Prime Minister to serve, I presume, almost a month before the legislative elections. The man chosen is Jean-Pierre Raffarin. More on him when I know more.* * *
posted by gbarto at 12:26 AM:
Final French election map update for the evening; click the map link at the top of the page to go there.* * *
Sunday, May 05, 2002
posted by gbarto at 11:56 PM:
For today's French news, you can just start scrolling down, but here are a few major stories:Le Monde's lead is below; the three subheads on the web are higher participation in the 2nd round (19.6% abstention rate), Jospin is officially gone tomorrow, so who will replace him?
Figaro Web lead: Chirac's big victory. And on the front page (being opened even now in Paris) there's just one story:
L'immense victoire
Finally, Libé (which supported Chirac only as an alternative to Le Pen):
Deuxième tour de l'élection présidentielle: Chirac, le plébiscite républicain
Chirac 81,96% - Le Pen 18,04% • Le chef de l'Etat, très largement réélu, s'affiche en rassembleur (The head of state, strongly re-elected, preens about being a unifier) • Il annonce la mise en place d'un «gouvernement de mission qui aura pour seule tâche de répondre à vos préoccupations»: insécurité, croissance, emploi (He announces he will create a "government with a mission which will have for its only task to respond to your concerns": insecurity, growth, employment) • Le leader du Front national fait moins que son score du premier tour additionné à celui de Bruno Mégret, mais l'extrême droite gagne cependant près de 500.000 voix (The leader of the FN gets less than his first round score plus Bruno Mégret's in percentage terms, but the extreme right still gains nearly 500,000 votes)
* * *
posted by gbarto at 11:15 PM:
Le Monde reports that the Minister of the Interior has turned over the official results: 82.06% for Jacques Chirac, 17.94% for Jean-Marie Le Pen. The difference between Le Pen's first and second round showing is negligeable, but as my map shows, Le Pen did still break 20% in nearly a third of the departments, showing that a good share of France is not only uncomfortable with the way things are going, but uncomfortable enough to give pretty good numbers to a guy denounced as a modern day Nazi. Say what you will, but the Communists haven't seen numbers like these in years, and they're still taken seriously.
* * *
posted by gbarto at 8:54 PM:
The map below will get one or two updates as I track down percentages for the overseas vote. Comments and French news to come.
* * *
posted by gbarto at 8:52 PM:
Le Pen percentages
(various sources, home colored)A note on methods: The figures were rounded to the nearest whole number, so 24.55% for example would be 25% for the chart. For completely arbitrary reasons, I chose to make 20% and up for Le Pen the red zone, with the deeper reds indicating greater support. I left Chirac with blue, good enough for a Republican, though white may have better befitted his manner. Finally, for those areas where Le Pen had his average support - the 15-20% range - I picked purple, i.e. red and blue mixed. My basic aim was to see whether Le Pen was widely supported or had his support clustered in small areas. The answer is effectively, both. I've given a red outline to what I take, fairly or unfairly, as the bastions of Lepénisme. Anti-Le Pen inhabitants of these regions should know I share my sympathy.
While a good portion of the country shied away from Le Pen, the breadth of support both in the south and in the northeast surprised me; perhaps because either those areas are still in the mood to protest or I didn't accept the sincerity with which Le Pen was supported in the first round. Marseille, I expected; I didn't think he'd break twenty percent across the entirety of the Riviera, though. Meanwhile, I am pleased to see Bretagne in the lower ranges, with Rennes giving Le Pen less than 8%.
* * *
posted by gbarto at 6:20 PM:
My sister, speaking about the results in Strasbourg, notes that there's a good size Arab population, not to mention the German border nearby which puts the people of Alsace and Lorraine more in competition with a somewhat more high-tech society. It's also cheaper to shop in Germany, so cross-border interactions are to the disadvantage of French merchants. She notes the north by Belgium is industrial, which would also explain some of the pro-Le Pen, anti-Europe sentiment there.My sister reminds, in France a city doesn't have to give a platform to a politician for up to three (?) years if they feel it would be a problem. Le Pen got to come the year she was there, 1997. "When he came in '97, there was an anti-Le Pen demonstration of several thousand people. Every statue in the city was wearing black blindfolds and black armbands so the area's forefathers couldn't see someone as bad as Le Pen in their proud city. There was grafitti everywhere, including city hall signs, including "Nick le FN" [F- the FN - but F- was spelled wrong]. There were protesters from all over France and Germany and other nations as well. This sounds impressive to Americans, but we also had a pretty big demonstration against night flights out of the airport - they didn't like the noise. Still, it was a big deal, and if anybody was happy about Le Pen's visit, they were keeping quiet about it. So I'm a little bit surprised by this vote. That the region wasn't as bad as the city really shocks me, because I can see those who moved out to the country voting Le Pen without saying so, but then again, they probably would be pretty comfortable with Chirac."
She also notes, "Wow! I can't believe the French government wasn't too embarrassed to print these."
* * *
posted by gbarto at 4:32 PM:
Bjørn Stærk asks, with the surge in right-wing populism, does the European right have what it takes to move from collecting protest votes to providing a genuine alternative governing philosophy?
* * *
posted by gbarto at 4:13 PM:
Strong spot for Le Pen: Chirac got his home of Paris 90-10, but Le Pen's strongholds are in the south and France's second largest city, Marseille, gave him 27% support (still 73% for Chirac, but if your premise is that Le Pen is a little Hitler, those vote totals may shock).
* * *
posted by gbarto at 4:10 PM:
But the election is already becoming old news, with all but one or two departments in, near as I can tell. The new story: Chirac won, by default, but how will he govern when his landslide comes from an anti- the other guy movement, not popular support. And will the left get its act together in time for the legislative elections? My guess is that Chirac will soon be in another cohabitation, but I haven't entirely written off the possibility of the left shooting itself in the foot again.
* * *
posted by gbarto at 4:07 PM:
90% in Paris proper, where Chirac was mayor for nearly forever.
* * *
posted by gbarto at 3:58 PM:
Hmmmmmm. I see that Tours - where I spent a little time a few years ago - was 87%-13% for Chirac, but Strasbourg, home of the European Parliament, was 85%-15% for Chirac. You'd think that with the strong interaction between the town and Germany and the presence of all those fine diplomats and legislators from across the continent, a nativist like Le Pen wouldn't have so much support, he said faux-naïvely. Still, my sister was there nine months a few years back and I didn't get the impression from talking to her that there was a lot of tension there; then again it is pretty industrial. Have to get her thoughts later.
* * *
posted by gbarto at 1:55 PM:
Pleased to see that Rennes, where I once lived a short while, voted 92.34% to 7.65% for Chirac. Waiting to see where Tours ends up - and of course Paris, but that'll be a while I'm guessing.
* * *
posted by gbarto at 1:36 PM:
Ipsos poll says 49% of French trust Chirac to be able to address problems, 48% don't. The landslide will look great in the history books; the reality is a little rougher. But this shows how much Le Pen is distrusted. The poll is written up here.
* * *
posted by gbarto at 1:33 PM:
If you go to the Le Monde home page and click the purple box that says "Résultats en direct," it brings up a list of cities and provinces that have called in their votes to the Minister of the Interior" for the latest official vote totals. One thing I don't like; it doesn't show how any of the individual results go into the national total. I know people object to the US horse race, where we note who's ahead when only Maine has reported - proving exactly nothing - but some sort of indication as to where the numbers in stand would be nice to see.
* * *
posted by gbarto at 11:13 AM:
SOFRES: Chirac: 82.5%, Le Pen: 17.5%, absentions: 19.8%
* * *
posted by gbarto at 11:09 AM:
Le Monde:
main polls give Chirac 80-83%, Le Pen 17-18%.
* * *
posted by gbarto at 9:01 AM:
Le Monde: Heavy participation in the second round. 68% turnout as of 5 o'clock (11 o'clock EDT); it was 59% at this time in the first round. First results at 8 Paris time, i.e. 2pm EDT.
* * *
posted by gbarto at 2:11 AM:
Yahoo France's results map here; right now it obviously only has the first round; not sure when they'll start posting the second round.
* * *
posted by gbarto at 1:51 AM:
La Ligue communiste révolutionnaire appelle à manifester "une fois Chirac élu" (AP)
samedi 4 mai 2002, 19h01 / Revolutionary communist league calls for demonstrations "once Chirac is elected".Wasn't it their divisive antics that set up a Chirac-Le Pen runoff in the first place? (I mean the far left, generally speaking)
* * *
This is a special compilation of TurkeyBlog coverage of the second round of French elections. Check "main" and the "archives" at right for daily commentary.
Remember, remember, 11 September,
When madness and malice took wing.
Face darkness and fear
With this memory clear,
And everywhere let Freedom ring!
Geoffrey Barto
(about these lines)
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