TurkeyBlog on the French elections
posted by gbarto at 8:51 PM:
Headlines for Le Figaro: "Who voted for Le Pen?", "A Historic bit of chance", "The Left and Right already looking ahead to Legislative elections"
The lead story on the web, unsurprisingly under the rubric "politics", is that this is the first time since Pompidou that France has had a right-more right election.
posted by gbarto at 8:44 PM:
We'll get a jump on French headlines tonight. Unsurprisingly, the election is still all the rage, or at least the rage about the election.
Le Monde leads with "A Republican Front takes shape":
Un front républicain s'ébauche
Au lendemain de la qualification de Jean-Marie Le Pen pour le second tour de l'élection présidentielle, un front républicain s'est ébauché en faveur de Jacques Chirac. Seule l'extrême gauche n'est pas parvenue à adopter une position commune pour faire barrage à l'extrême droite. / A Republican Front takes shape. The day after Jean-Marie Le Pen qualified for the second round of voting in the presidential election, a republican front took shape in favor of Jacques Chirac. Only the extreme left has not come around to adopting a common stance against the extreme right.
The left had better be careful; choosing their ideal over the possible and refusing to paper over differences with allies to make a common cause is precisely what led to the Chirac-Le Pen runoff in the first place.
Le Monde also notes the efforts of the Front National (Le Pen's party) to moderate its tone, the numerous demonstrations against Le Pen (just think if all those people had shown up to vote!) and François Hollande's weighty task, putting the Socialist Party back together.
posted by gbarto at 3:39 PM:
Tom Sancton, appearing on Fox News, hits the nail on the head. Says he, the Le Pen election means: people are upset with politics as usual. people lie to pollsters. voters cast protest votes. law and order demands attention. What it doesn't mean: France is moving to the right. the French people are bigots. xenophobia is on the rise.
Summarizes Hume: This does not mean a move to the right, just a freak situation where protest votes and apathy created an oddball vote.
Sound familiar?
But Sancton says a leftist backlash in legislative elections could lead to gridlock and a Constitutional crisis. I'd take it as more of same. Anger produces crisis; disgust only generates apathy. And disgust seems the likelier result.
posted by gbarto at 2:49 PM:
Fascinating post (i.e. it agrees with my analysis) from Sasha Volokh here. via Instantman
posted by gbarto at 2:05 PM:
Emmanuelle has her notes on the election and the crowing and anti-French sentiment she's hearing. So for the record, a vote table is here. Someone commented on Megret + Le Pen = 19+%. Et alors? Jospin + Laguiller + Chevènement + Mamère = 32+%. Throw in Hue and you get 36%. What does that prove? That the left was overly divided. Better, let's take this: Greens and far left = 19.7% Ta-da! Same as the racist right. The center didn't hold, but France didn't lurch right, it went to both extremes. But the left split its protest vote while the hard right consolidated it. Is this a cause for worry? About the French electoral system, maybe, about the French culture, naaaaaah. The same attitudes are getting roughly the same percentages with a nudge here and there. The difference is that Le Pen toned down the rhetoric, the left pitched its up, Jospin froze, and the numbers budged in just the right way for a bizarre statistical accident. Bottom line: this is a puzzle for mathematicians, not sociologists.
posted by gbarto at 7:26 AM:
Libé is up, sort of, and reports that massive traffic crashed their server. They therefore have limited news up, their main story being the anti-Le Pen protests (pictures included; click the link underneath the picture on the front page to see the rest)
posted by gbarto at 7:22 AM:
Oh yes, and in what Le Monde calls "An Unprecedented Debacle", the Communists got 3.39% of the vote, their worst showing ever.
posted by gbarto at 7:18 AM:
Dans toute la France, des milliers de manifestants ont défilé, dès l'annonce des résultats, pour dénoncer la présence de M. Le Pen au second tour / Throughout France, thousands of protesters marched, after the announcement of the results, to denounce the presence of Mr. Le Pen in the second round. | Reuters
Like the elite, a lot of France was stunned, but as I've been saying, Le Pen in second place does not represent the true voice of France; it represents the fluke of a divided left leaving the way open for a concentrated movement on the right in an electoral system that was designed to let the various left-wing parties have their voice and influence but which backfired. But Chirac must be snickering; Le Monde reports that leaders on the left are already backing him as the only way to oppose Le Pen. As a consequence, a hardly beloved incumbent president could be looking at a landslide.
posted by gbarto at 7:00 AM:
In the midst of the news, be sure to check out Friday's Bleat if you haven't already. Adorable "how coot" moments with Gnat. And try todays as well (link at left under Lileks)
posted by gbarto at 6:48 AM:
"It's a political earthquake," Dominique Moisi, a prominent commentator and analyst, said Sunday after exit polls showed a strong showing for Le Pen. "It shows that the protest vote went overboard. . . . You had the fragmentation of the left, and the extreme left contributed to the destruction of Jospin." The result, he said, "is humiliating for France, and it's very bad for Europe. It means one Frenchman out of five cast an anti-European vote."
-the origin of the Le Monde and LeFigaro "earthquake" headlines, though the shame is with the Socialists who made a none-of-the-above candidate into a political force. The elites' horror is understandable, because this was a shot at them; France will be ok but they might not be.
posted by gbarto at 6:43 AM:
Political Shocker in France
Anti-immigration, anti-European candidate to face Chirac in runoff.
WaPo on the French elections
posted by gbarto at 1:15 AM:
You've got the French response and my response below. But if you want pure, pristine truth incarnate, better check out Den Beste. And take it out again the next time you are on your way to vote.
posted by gbarto at 1:08 AM:
Matt Welch hits it on the head. No need to get excited. This is Buchanan winning the New Hampshire primary, not Hitler taking power in Germany. But if he wins... never happen.
posted by gbarto at 12:36 AM:
The New France:
Center-Right or Right-Wing?
Jacques Chirac won a plurality of the vote in the first round of French presidential elections, capturing 20% of the vote. Ho-hum. The real story: Jean-Marie Le Pen, leader of the Front National, a man whose agenda in not so subtle terms implies that France would be better if everyone with darker skin than his left, garnered 17% of the vote. With Lionel Jospin flailing to figure out what he stood for and hardcore leftists ready to say "not enough", that 17% for Le Pen was enough to put the French equivalent of Pat Buchanan meets David Duke in the running for "La présidence de la République française".
And that's not all; the Social Democrats got routed in Saxe-Anhalt in the last contest leading up to legislative elections in September, and thus comes the question, whither the European left? Just a few days ago, I forget where, I was reading about how with Jospin and Schroder running France and Germany, Tony Blair would be forced to get on board with the European left and shed his Thatcherite leanings. So much for that dream. Lionel Jospin ... is ... out!
Where does this lead? The first inclination is to say, nowhere good. Certainly that's the case at LeMonde, which went from "séisme" - earthquake - to cataclysme in their characterization. A rather sharp slap on the wrist for les citoyens de la République française, having it explained to them that they've set something awful in motion. With nasty comments like that, maybe even more voters will stay away next time, though Le Pen's margin of victory surely was aided by discouraged leftists who either didn't vote or voted extreme left in the (realistic) conclusion that even if Jospin truly were a leftist, he couldn't put together a government so you'd know it. So far away now seems the triumph of the 35 hour work-week. May 5, the Prime Minister leaves politics. But when he recedes from Matignon, will his fellow countrymen even recognize him? Or will Jacques Chirac's expected continued tenure at the Elysée Palace leave Jospin just another Prime Minister, much the same way Chirac must have felt before his election to the Presidency in 1995? Time will tell. However, none of this means that France has suddenly become a right-wing future Nazi state. The left, en large, easily outpolled Le Pen. And after the legislative elections in June, their fractured voices of today will presumably come together in a crankily unstable yet nonetheless existent coalition to check, if not outweigh, the power of the right. As importanly, one wonders how many French will be astonished that their protest vote for Le Pen actually counted. (Naderites are called to task for diminishing Gore's margins, but the regrets could have been far greater had he actually won.) Now we wait and see, and maybe we snicker just a little at how the leftist elite in France has shot itself in the foot. We can do this, for despite the nasty comments back and forth, France remains fundamentally a part of Western civilization, rendered foolish by its existential angst at no longer being the center of the world, but still a part of our team. The elections, in my best estimation, show the French are fed up with politics and fed up with their leaders. And lest we fear that events seem to earth-shaking, let us go about our business, confident that whatever the shifts in the political climate, whatever the roiling of their society, the leadership will still be angry at America and the citizenry will still watch our movies.
posted by gbarto at 12:21 AM:
From a Le Monde editorial: The interpretation of the results is simple: Lionel Jospin didn't know how to take charge of his camp, not even with other candidates within a leftist plurality, who presented themselves as more against him than on his side. He never gave the impression of mastering his campaign, debuted at the center, finished at the left and peppered with maladresses like his remarks on Jacques Chirac's age or the avowal of his "naïveté" in the face of insecurity. The least charitable in his regard, maybe the most intuitive, will say that Lionel Jospin didn't believe in the campaign and that he unknowingly desired to leave the political scene as he quickly announced Sunday night.
posted by gbarto at 12:05 AM:
But Humanité, the paper of the French Communist Party is up, and the lead editorial is hot.
This link should take you there.
Useful for what?, the headline cries, this in response to "la vote utile," the French voting system in two rounds to give secondary parties their influence, their chance to make their voices heard. But today the system results in a second round vote best summarized as Center-Right versus So-far-right-they're-left-Right. What happened? One extreme right party. Four extreme left parties. The extreme leftists got 33%, double what Jospin received and better than 1 1/2 times Chirac's support. Of course this is Jospin's own damn fault. It's just like George HW Bush falling before Clinton and Perot - if somebody else can grab your natural constituency, you haven't been doing a very good job. And Jospin hadn't. And now... he's toast.
Sunday, April 21, 2002
posted by gbarto at 11:54 PM:
The server of Liberation (no point in giving a link) seems to be down, can't give commentary for them tonight.
posted by gbarto at 11:46 PM:
Le Pen salue la défaite de "l'établissement"
Le leader du Front national, Jean-Marie Le Pen, s'est félicité de son score, affirmant que "les Français ne voulaient plus que l'avenir du pays se résume à un duel entre Jospin et Chirac". / Le Pen salutes the defeat of the Establishment The leader of the National Front, Jean-Marie Le Pen, celebrated his score, asserting that "the French no longer wanted their country's future to be left as a duel between Jospin and Chirac."
posted by gbarto at 11:42 PM:
Déroute de Schröder en Saxe-Anhalt
Berlin : Jean-Paul Picaper
[22 avril 2002]
Le Parti social-démocrate (SPD) du chancelier Gerhard Schröder a essuyé hier une déroute à l'élection régionale de Saxe-Anhalt, remportée par l'opposition chrétienne-démocrate (CDU), selon des estimations sur bulletins de vote dépouillés de la télévision publique allemande (ARD et ZDF). Dans l'ultime test avant les élections législatives du 22 septembre, la CDU, selon de premières estimations, l'emporte avec de 36,7 à 37,4 % des voix (22 % en 1998), loin devant le SPD qui perd près de la moitié de son électorat, entre 18,7 et 19,7 % (35,9 % en 1998). / Rout of Schroder in Saxe-Anhalt The Social Democrats (SPD) of Gerhard Schroder brushed off a routing in the regional elections in Saxe-Anhalt by the opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU), according to bulletins on German public television. In the final contest before the legislative elections the 22nd of September, the CDU, according to the first estimates, received 36.7%-37.4% of votes (22% in 1998), far beyond the SPD which lost nearly half its support with 18.7%-19.7% (35.9% in 1998).
posted by gbarto at 11:34 PM:
Lionel Jospin annonce son retrait
Après le cataclysme créé par le résultat du premier tour de l'élection présidentielle, Lionel Jospin a annoncé, depuis son QG de campagne, son retrait de la vie politique après le 5 mai. / Lionel Jospin announces his retirement After the cataclysm created by the results of the first round of the presidential election, Lionel Jospin announced from his campaign headquarters that he is retiring from politics as of the 5th of May.
posted by gbarto at 11:30 PM:
We're messing up the order here to take things as we find them. Anyway, Jospin's toast, the Pat Buchanan of France is on the rise and Chirac is probably sitting pretty. Le Monde led with the Le Pen earthquake; Le Figaro also has an earthquake:
Premier tour : le séisme politique
Les premières estimations à la sortie des urnes du premier tour de l'élection présidentielle font de Jacques Chirac le gagnant du scrutin avec 20% des votes. Jean-Marie Le Pen arrive en seconde position avec 17% des voix exprimées. Un évènement historique dans le paysage politique français et l'aboutissement pour Jean-Marie Le Pen d'une campagne assagie. Le leader du Front national aura sans doute également profité d'un taux d'abstention record de 28,5%, favorisant la prépondérance des votes protestataires. / First Round: A political earthquake. The first estimates to come out from the ballot boxes of the first round of the presidential elections show Chirac the winner with 20% of the votes. Jean-Marie Le Pen comes in second with 17% of votes cast. A historic event in French political territory and the successful conclusion of a stealth campaign by Jean-Marie Le Pen. The leader of the National Front no doubt also profited from a record 28.5% abstention rate, favoring the preponderance of protest votes.
posted by gbarto at 11:19 PM:
Here starts our coverage of the French newspapers, and we're running long on the translations:
Le séisme Le Pen, l'abandon de Jospin
Le premier tour de l'élection présidentielle s'est traduit par un véritable séisme politique, avec l'éviction de Lionel Jospin du second tour où Jacques Chirac, arrivé en tête, affrontera Jean-Marie Le Pen. Pour la première fois dans l'histoire de la République, un candidat d'extrême-droite participera au second tour d'une élection présidentielle. Selon les résultats définitifs communiqués lundi par le ministère de l'intérieur sur la France entière, sauf la Guyane, la Martinique, la Guadeloupe, la Polynésie et les Français de l'étranger, Jacques Chirac arrive en tête avec 19,67 % des voix. Suivent Jean-Marie Le Pen avec 17,02 % des voix, puis Lionel Jospin avec 16,07 %. / The Le Pen Earthquake, the Abandonment of Jospin. The first round of the presidential elections represents a political earthquake with the eviction of Lionel Jospin from the second round where Chirac, arriving at the front of the line, will face Jean-Marie Le Pen. For the first time in the history of the Republic, an extreme right candidate will participate in the second round of the presidential elections. According to the definitive results issued Monday by the Minister of the Interior of all France, save Guyana, Martinique, Guadeloupe, French Polynesia and French citizens overseas, Jacques Chirac came in first with 19.67%. After were Jean-Marie Le Pen with 17.02%, then Lionel Jospin with 16.07%.
posted by gbarto at 11:03 PM:
Holy Shit! Sorry, but I'm tout à fait époustoufflé. Le Monde and Le Figaro are issuing the same results, direct from the Minister of the Interior in France, and here's the breakdown: Jacques Chirac, 19.7%; Jean-Friggin'-Marie LePen, 17.02%; Lionel Jospin, 16.07%. This means that Prime Minister Jospin is out of the running! and that a man who makes Pat Buchanan look sensitive and self-effacing is the number two choice of French voters. This is what sometimes happens with the 2-step election (liberal do-gooders with your dreams of "fairer" elections giving smaller parties a chance take note): Essentially, for the next round, we have George HW Bush facing Pat Buchanan for the presidency.